[BBLISA] February Mtg: Risk Analysis: The problem of probability

[John P. Rouillard]

Hi Everybody:

Our February speaker will be Walt Williams speaking on:

   Risk Analysis: The problem of probability

An overview of traditional use of probability in quantitative
models of risk analysis and a proposal or two of a better
approach. Traditionally, risk is thought to be the product of
impact when multiplied by probability. While we learned in
elementary school not to combine apples and oranges, somehow NIST
expects us to believe that multiplying probability by impact
gives you meaningful results. This presentation will look both at
ways to calculate probability meaningfully, the value of doing so
in risk analysis, and what the relationship with impact actually
is and why it's important to understand this.

Walter Williams served as an infrastructure and security
architect at firms as diverse as GTE Internetworking, State
Street Corp, Teradyne, The Commerce Group and EMC. He has since
moved to security management, where he'd served as at
IdentityTruth, Passkey and now manages security at Lattice
Engines. He is an outspoken proponent of design before build, an
advocate of frameworks and standards, and has spoken at Security
B-Sides on risk management as the cornerstone of a security
architecture. His articles on Security and Service Oriented
Architecture have appeared in the Information Security Management
Handbook. He sits on the board of directors for the New England
ISSA chapter and was a member of the program committee for
Metricon8. He has masters degree in Anthropology from Hunter
College.

The meeting will be held on Wed February 10th.

   7:00 - Announcements & Introductions
   7:30 - Formal presentation

Room TBD, but somewhere in building E51 at MIT.

--
				-- rouilj
John Rouillard
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My employers don't acknowledge my existence much less my opinions.