[BBLISA] Wednesday February 10 Mtg: Risk Analysis: The problem of probability

[John P. Rouillard]

Hi Everybody:

Please join our speaker in romm E51-145 at MIT.
Our February speaker will be Walt Williams speaking on:

   Risk Analysis: The problem of probability

An overview of traditional use of probability in quantitative
models of risk analysis and a proposal or two of a better
approach. Traditionally, risk is thought to be the product of
impact when multiplied by probability. While we learned in
elementary school not to combine apples and oranges, somehow NIST
expects us to believe that multiplying probability by impact
gives you meaningful results. This presentation will look both at
ways to calculate probability meaningfully, the value of doing so
in risk analysis, and what the relationship with impact actually
is and why it's important to understand this.

The meeting will be held on Wed February 10th.

   7:00 - Announcements & Introductions
   7:30 - Formal presentation

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				-- rouilj
John Rouillard
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My employers don't acknowledge my existence much less my opinions.